r/valueinvesting
VG - Venture Global, the next AI bottle neck
VG benefits from AI-driven gas demand, backed by strong Q1 revenue, raised EBITDA, and locked-in contracts, despite high debt.
- Surging natural gas demand for power plants validates the AI infrastructure play, benefiting LNG exporters.
- Strong Q1 financials with 59% revenue growth to $4.6B and raised full-year EBITDA guidance to $8.2-$8.5B.
- High cash flow predictability with 84% of cargoes locked in at a solid $4.51/MMBtu liquefaction fee.
- The company carries a high level of debt, which poses a financial risk if the AI-driven demand narrative falters.
An examination of EPA emission inventory for 2025 will reveal widespread increas in natural gas consumption at power plants, specifically in 2025. I interpret this as validation of the AI infrastructure play. However, the natural gas demand increase seems to be flying under the radar.
VEnture Global presents a compelling growth narrative driven by massive operational scaling and an aggressive commercial footprint. The company recently posted an impressive 59% year-over-year revenue surge to $4.6 billion for Q1, powered by a 111% jump in volume sold via a record 130 exported LNG cargoes. Financial health is heavily backed by robust forward momentum, with management raising full-year EBITDA guidance to a strong $8.2 to $8.5 billion range. Commercially, Venture Global has already locked in 84% of its available cargoes with a solid weighted average liquefaction fee of $4.51/MMBtu. This near-term cash flow predictability is further bolstered by newly secured multi-year supply agreements with major global players.
The only concern may be their high level of debt, while concerning, is not a deal breaker if the AI driven increase in natural gas demand story holds up.
Current Price: $11.10
I’m heavy in this. I’m kind of shocked that an actual good recommendation is now posted here and of course not shocked that there are so few replies.
VG is my 2nd large equity position after RKLB. VG is profitable, is fully integrated, started company a dividend, has excellent management and has an incredibly strong reputation and future
I made a post about this a few days ago - https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/VWTlaLaIfT , didn’t get approved by mods initially and had to put it up again
I appreciate finally seeing a recommendation that has a reasonable P/E, good fundamentals, and is not a purely AI play. The debt is justifiable considering that it seems to be based on infrastructure that will be necessary and useful for many years to come whether AI ends up what it's being hyped to be or not. I'm in for 300 shares.
I’ve been holding for a year with 450 shares, it’s rough. I only bought because I worked at their plant and found out how good their design is, that said it’s been a rough year
Its my biggest position as well with 2000 shares and $10 calls for 2028. I made a post about it as well and would be happy if people poke holes
Litigation is always apart of corporate governance and responsibility. I went to law school and spent 24+ years on Wall Street primarily managing institutional assets. Name a large publicly traded corporation that doesn’t have some form of litigation against them (or them going after someone) or SEC inquiry
Great company. Literally almost nothing to do with data centers.
The problem as I see it is that the US produces a LOT of lng. Even with the Iran situation, LNG stayed pretty much the same in the US and the related stocks did not participate the way XOM and other oil stocks did. I ended up going with GEV as my AI energy play, though It’s a bit stretched at this point it has had some ok enough entry points during panic dips.
US producing a lot of NG (one doesn't produce LNG) is a positive for VG. That means they can buy cheap gas, liquify it, and ship it globally while getting a high price. Prices of LNG shot up 90% on Iran war which is 2x the oil price increase.
Mostly options being dumped at profit. Blackstone and other big players have been buying. I’m personally invested at 6000 shares across various accounts. The pipeline from sour lake is progressing rapidly and CP2 is progressing at speed and is predicted to start production in Summer of 2027. CP3 is right behind it. They are building proprietary ships for selling on the spot market. This company has robbed my refinery of our best operator and yeah I’m bullish on it. I’ll keep buying this fire sale of a great companies stock.
Lots of legal action? Most of the legal clashes are solved out atm.
Correct pending BP which is the major one
countries that produce chips and semiconductors are running on LNG (japan, korea and taiwan, even china is importing a truck load of LNG)
power consumption from chip production is a joke compared to that of AI datacenters
TSMC consumes ~25.55 billion kWh a year. The 190 GW of hyperscaler datacenters announced in early 2026, assuming 80% utilization, will consume ~1.6 trillion kWh annually. like what are we talking about here?