r/options
MU earnings Tuesday and IV is sitting at the 98th percentile, anyone else nervous?
MU earnings expectations and HBM TAM are sky-high, but massive capex and record IV make holding through the print risky.
- Street expects a massive revenue beat and 1155% YoY net income growth.
- Potential for management to raise HBM TAM targets, which could trigger a sector-wide rally.
- Massive capex raises concerns about a classic memory cycle oversupply trap.
- Extremely high options IV prices in a monster move, risking a sell-the-news fade even on a beat.
Micron drops fiscal Q3 on the 24th and the setup looks kinda insane. street is at 35.4B rev vs the 33.5B guide, gross margin consensus 81.8%, and net income basically up 1,155% YoY. like, those are not normal numbers.
been watching this on the moomoo community all week and the bull case keeps coming back to one thing, does mgmt actually raise the HBM TAM number. they were throwing around \~35B for 2025 and a \~100B target by 2028, and if they nudge that higher the whole memory complex probably rips. if they dont, i think this thing fades hard even on a beat.
what scares me is the capex. FY26 already pegged north of 25B and FY27 supposedly even bigger. feels like the classic memory cycle trap where everyone is happy until somebody whispers oversupply.
options IV is at 114, 98th percentile rank. straddle is pricing a monster move. i nibbled some shares last week, didnt have the stomach for premium that rich.
couple things i actually want to know:
\- can non HBM memory hold these margins or is that the soft underbelly
\- is anyone playing this with spreads instead of naked calls/puts
\- if MU rips, does SNDK follow or does it stay forgotten
honestly torn between trimming into print and just sitting on hands. anyone else holding through?
MU earnings are Wednesday after the close.
I expect it to dip as people take profit, then shoot back on Friday
This
Sell the News! Great news? Sell asap cause MM’s will and they’ll crater the price and the buy the dip.
Unless they pull a nvidia, everyone thought there was no way it can go up every earning and it did
Earnings will be announced right after the Wednesday close, but we'll also have inflation data released Thursday morning before market open. Worth taking that into account.
there is a very good chance this pulls an AVGO
Any slight guidance the street does not like will tank this hard from its massive rally and entire index will drop for a week
China possibly being soft on MU (25% of its revenue)
CAPEX required without the revenue in place
LOTS of risk on this earnings
Yahoo says earnings are on Wednesday the 24 but yeah I'm not holding my calls through that
What i see in MU is that it's one of the most volatile earnings stocks in the S&P 500. Looking at the last 16 quarters, the 3-day post-earnings move has been ≥8% in 43% of events — that includes +21.7% (Mar 2024), +22.6% (Dec 2025), but also -13.6% (Dec 2024) and -12.4% (Mar 2026). The median move is 6%, p75 is 11%.
I would be nervous too.
The pce will release Thursday the 25th at 8:30am Eastern time zone.
He mentioned Moomoos. They actually have a really decent options analysis page!
Shorting the crap outa it.
Be sure to post the results.
I mean, it’s still money you could lose. Don’t count the chickens in your basket. Everyone that owns this right now, whether you’re 1000% in profit or 1% still needs to make a conscious choice. Every day you hold, you’re saying “would I buy this at this price” and if the answer is no, you should sell and keep your money.
The put call ration on Nvidia’s last earnings was bullish and it beat and the stock tanked… the put call ration is bearish going into earnings for MU. MU is going to have a massive beat so… to the moon?
Show it pictures and it becomes more aware.