r/baba
Intrinsic Value = $193
Author values BABA at $193 using a sum-of-the-parts model, highlighting strong cash reserves and Cloud/AI growth.
- Strong balance sheet with $85B in net cash and investments minus debt.
- Cloud/AI segment showing robust 38% revenue growth.
- Sum-of-the-parts valuation indicates significant undervaluation at $193 intrinsic value.
- Quick Commerce faces highly competitive landscape despite 58% growth.
- Core e-commerce and international segments show flat revenue growth.
I've been doing this a long time, the news, the hype, the tears are all temporary as long as the business itself makes sense.
I value BABA at $193 based on 2.2 billion shares for $425B EV from $340 billion + $85B in investments.
Balance sheet: $85B = $20B net cash + $97B investments - 33B long term debt.
E-Commerce: $120B valuation from $60B in sales (flat)
Cloud/AI: $100B from $24B in sales (+38% growth)
Quick Commerce: $40B from $12B in sales, (58% growth, but highly competitive)
International: $40B from $20B in sales (flat)
All Others: $40B from $36B in sales (flat)
Except its at 100
if all stocks were fair valued, then there would be no game, it would all be handled by computers.
That's when you buy. Not when it's approaching 190 USD
Bought $60k worth of Baba yesterday. May buy more if it dips any today.
Stock is up 11% in the last 10 years , this is an example of a great company but shit stock.
Honestly i hold this shit for 2 years and then I sold at 150, so i made a nice gains but its not worth holding , many better opportunities than this trash
Do you deny you spam the same comment repeatedly without adding anything new? This has nothing to do with me and no it’s not even my largest position.
If you spam this same comment one more time without something more you will be banned. This is your last warning, thanks.
Its $190+ when this AI investment prints and the revenue growth goes double digits again. Intrinsic value should be around $140 after they went on shopping spree on datacenter. FCF plummeted, eps tanking, revenue growth is single digit (yeah cloud and AI growing fast blah blah. They make most money on ecommerce and thats how they fund their AI push) so Q2 report will tell us a lot
how many days in a row has BABA been red, is that new world record?
I am Adding another 100 shares
it did hit 190 in the last 6 months. Timing is tough, it can be next week or in 20 years. hopefully not the latter!
They restarted last night with $12m for about 110k shares.
My intrinsic value for BABA is … hmm carry the y … t-head 25 multiple… hmm yes… total value = 💩
Go tell that to somebody that didn’t go all in with full margin at $170 average and was forced to sell everything from $115-$105
Margin is a bad idea at all times, you don’t want to be forced to sell at lows