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r/valueinvestingr/valueinvesting· u/CLO_Bets· 5d agoQuestion / Help 9

Future-proof investing considering biophysical shocks

Investor summaryBearish

Author seeks resilient picks for 2040-2060 to hedge against severe biophysical shocks, arguing markets underprice these existential risks.

Bear points
  • The market is not pricing in the reality of impending biophysical and climate changes.
  • Many companies claiming to benefit from the green transition are actually fragile and exposed to systemic shocks.
Post body

Hi r/ValueInvesting

I've long stayed on the sidelines of the stock market, considering myself a permabear and very pessimistic about the future reliability of financial systems. I believe this post fits the subreddit because I do not think the market is pricing in the reality of changes which will be forced upon our civilization sooner rather than later.

Additionally, I would like some guidance from potentially likeminded investors. My timehorizon for the rest of this post is 2040 - 2060, so feel free to take it with a grain of salt. If my pessimism is warranted there may not be much of a capital market even if these picks are right.

For my stated investment horizon, I'm looking at a few key risks with more immediate consequences to human life: multiregional crop failure (1, 2), extreme heat and rainfall (3, 4), sea-level rise (5, 6), coral reef extinction (7), ocean current destabilization (8, 9) and broader biodiversity collapse (10, 11).

The challenge then is to find companies which are resilient and can provide solutions or help to adapt to such changes. While many entities claim to have tailwinds from the above, in reality they are simply fragile and exposed, selling a 'green transition' thesis but not really embracing the scope of what is headed our way.

I'll outline a few potential picks I'm looking at in the comment section, but my most important question to the subreddit would be: considering the above, where can value be found? It seems the market is looking a few years ahead at most. For example, I'm looking into dike/water infra, food-system resilience and other adaptation tech.

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