Did I sell NVO early?
Author regrets selling NVO, questioning if oral Wegovy approval and duopoly status signal a turnaround despite Goldman's $47 price target.
- Oral Wegovy has been approved in the UK and has a strong prescription base in the US.
- NVO holds a duopoly with Lilly in weight loss medicine and has a first-mover advantage with its oral version.
- Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral rating with a $47 target price, indicating limited near-term upside.
- The stock is highly volatile and has a history of dumping after reaching the mid-$40s range.
I know it's one of the 4 horseman of "value" stocks this sub likes to crap on but I initially bought in believing in the product and for the most part still do, however I sold so I could average down on my SaaS positions that I still hold and ultimately have higher conviction in. However after selling near market close yesterday for just under break even, I noticed it kept going up more today, I know nobody has a crystal ball but it dumped every other time time it swung from low $40s to mid $40s for the past few months so I sold believing that would happen again, but after reading more into some headlines I see it may not be the case.
Oral Wegovy has been approved for the UK, it has 3 Million prescriptions currently in the U.S. and the oral version was what I held out so long for, I was down 25% on it at one point before that, so that's why I sold today because I didn't want to be a big holder again but now I find myself thinking if I held even for just one more day I could've at least made a little something, and I'll be shocked if it takes off and hits $60-70 again soon. Goldman has a neutral rating and target price of just $47 which is where it's at now so I didn't see it really going up that much more in the near term, but am I missing something here? I'm not ready to dive back in but wondering if the tide is finally turning for this stock. I don't think it deserves to be the meme this sub makes it out to be, they have a duopoly in weight loss medicine with Lilly and now have the first mover advantage with their oral version. I sold because I just don't know what the stock may do next and figured biotech is too volatile and unpredictable for me, I'd also rather buy the SaaS dip.
Gonna be kicking myself hard though if this is the turnaround the stock has been waiting for and I sold off just as it is happening, I did that with Google last year and got out at $225 (totally different I know), I sold UNH in the $360 range thinking I did good after buying in much lower, only to see it now over $400, it seems to be a pattern where I bag hold for months or over a year and then the second were either back in the green or close to it I sell those stocks. Sometimes it was for the better, had I held Nike and PayPal I would've been screwed, but also if I held onto others like Intel and AMD I'd be rolling in cash right now.

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