r/valueinvesting
Serve Robotics seems like one of the few “real” robotics use cases out there, so why does the stock still feel dead?
Author questions why SERV stock is weak despite valid robotics use cases and partnerships, citing small revenue scale and ongoing losses.
- Valid real-world use case for short-distance urban robot delivery amid high labor costs.
- Strong partnerships with Uber Eats, DoorDash, and White Castle, with expanding fleet and growing revenue.
- Revenue remains small in absolute terms while losses are significant, raising scalability concerns.
- Stock lacks proven profitability needed for a market premium, stuck in an awkward middle ground.
I’ve been looking at Serve Robotics (SERV) for quite some time now and this one actually feels like it has a product that makes sense in the real world. Robot delivery for short-distance urban routes doesn’t sound crazy at all, especially when labor is expensive and companies like Uber are clearly interested in making the model work. They’ve got the Uber Eats partnership, DoorDash, White Castle, the fleet has been expanding, and revenue growth has at least started to show up, and yet the stock still trades like the market doesn’t really believe in it.
My guess is the issue is that investors are looking past the “this is cool and clearly useful” part and going straight to the economics. Revenue is growing, but it’s still small in absolute terms, losses are still big, and the market probably wants to see that this becomes an actual scalable business rather than just a company with a good product and a lot of operating spend. It almost feels like SERV is stuck in that awkward middle ground where it’s already proven it’s more than a concept, but it hasn’t proven enough for the market to give it a real premium either.
So I’m not really questioning the use case at this point. I’m more wondering if the stock is basically being held back by the same thought everyone has 'cool robotics work, but now show me the money'.
That’s how I’m reading it at least. Curious if others think the market is just waiting for margins/scale to improve, or if there’s something more bearish here.
The main issue is that sidewalk delivery robots are basically rolling capex. The hardware degrades quickly from weather and road vibration, so the useful life of these units is short, probably around 2 to 3 years. That means a huge chunk of their operating cash flow has to go straight back into fleet replacement, behaving more like maintenance capex than growth capital. There is also the teleoperation bottleneck. They aren't fully autonomous. They still rely on remote human operators to take over in tricky spots. If they need 1 operator for every 4 or 5 active robots, the labor savings get mostly swallowed by remote wages and connectivity costs. How are you modeling their depreciation cycle and the ratio of remote operators to robots in your terminal valuation?
That’s fair, and honestly I don't have a clean terminal model on SERV yet, tbh.
But I think what you pointed out is the real bear case. If the robots are basically rolling capex and teleop stays a meaningful part of the model, then the economics are a lot less exciting than the surface-level “replace delivery labor with robots” story. That’s kind of why I’m not fully sold even though the use case itself seems real. I don’t think the question is 'does the product work', but rather 'whether the unit economics ever get good enough'.
It their major market is Asian where it is safe and peaceful, i will be interested
But it is US OF A, and this is happening everyday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XiJC3qE45c
no i don't think they can expand much
Same here, it can work in Singapore, Korea, Japan. In my neighbourhood its just free pizza and some parts for your next battlebot
I went looking for a signal in the insider data and didn't find much either direction. The 174 sale rows over 36 months look like heavy selling, but most of it is CEO and other officers doing sell-to-cover on RSU vesting for tax (footnote F1 on every transaction). Strip that out and the truly discretionary selling is under $1M across all officers and directors over 3 years. On the buy side, only 2 small open-market buys totaling about $270K, neither recent. Nobody inside is buying despite the slide to $6, but nobody is actively bailing either.
Yeah, that’s basically where I landed too after going through the filings.
The giant list of insider selling looks way scarier than it really is because most of it is just RSU vesting / tax-withholding stuff, not execs smashing the sell button and running for the exits. Kashani and Brian Read both had those June Form 4s and they were basically the same F1 sell-to-cover tax while still holding a lot of stock after.
The part that actually matters is what you said after that: there’s also basically no meaningful insider buying this slide. So to me it’s not a bearish 'insiders are dumping' signal, but it’s also not some hidden bullish tell either. It’s more just, neutral. Nobody’s really bailing, but nobody’s buying with their own money at $6 either. So I kind of agree this is less an insider story and more a 'do you believe they can actually scale the robot fleet / revenue fast enough' story.
Do you like intuitive surgical?
I don't have any exposure to intuitive surgical, tbh.
But after reading about it, to me it’s one of the robotic industry names where you can clearly see the moat. It’s not just 'robot surgery is a cool theme', they already have the installed base, the surgeon training ecosystem, and the recurring instruments/service revenue that makes the whole thing way stickier than a normal med tech product. I just think of it very differently from SERV. With SERV I’m still trying to figure out how much of the future economics the market believes in. With ISRG, the business is already proven.
CCXI now. Look at today’s news.
Nope, only Amazon using robots productively, others are just burning money.
What I can never get a straight answer on is the unit economics once you strip out the subsidies. How many deliveries a day does a single robot have to do before it beats just paying a courier, and is the fleet anywhere close to that yet? That one number is the whole bull or bear case, and nobody talking about the stock seems to know it.
Their marketing is a joke. They are drawing on robots and that is a marketing? Where are the videos of delivery of laundry? My average price is 8.5 but I think I am gonna sell with a loss. The tech in interesting but...
They did acquire a company to move into hospitals though, which does give them a portion of the fleet that’s somewhat protected from bad weather/people messing with the robots. That gives me hope for their long term prospects
did you see their sidewalk robot? with the two big eyes? i sold after i saw it. and i mhappy cuz else i'd be down a lot now lol. i was also searching for a robotics company in the past.
they are going to need to deploy drone delivery or it's just not gonna be interesting.
did you see their sidewalk robot? with the two big eyes? i sold after i saw it. and i mhappy cuz else i'd be down a lot now lol. i was also searching for a robotics company in the past.
they are going to need to deploy drone delivery or it's just not gonna be interesting.