r/valueinvesting
SAAS nice chart setups is a huge trap
SaaS stocks showing relative strength are a bull trap; hardware like MU is the real play as software lags.
- Hardware and memory names are outperforming, as evidenced by MU's massive earnings beat and strong after-hours reaction.
- Hardware remains the primary market focus while software continues to be sidelined.
- SaaS stocks with high tight flags and strong relative strength are failing to break out, signaling a distributive top and a retail bull trap.
- Sector leaders like MSFT and ORCL, along with the IGV index, are constantly making new lows.
- The SaaS basket remains flat or down in after-hours trading despite positive hardware earnings.
A lot of SAAS names have actually held up super well past few weeks. Go look at charts like OKTA, DDOG, SNOW, CRWD, RBRK etc. All with high tight flags, some holding EMAs, some holding post-earnings gaps. These stocks have shown incredible relative strength (RS) while markets have been super volatile past few weeks.
IMO this was nothing more than a retail bull trap. The charts look really nice.... but they haven't broken out after weeks of consolidation. This is signaling distributive top rather than bullish consolidation. Not to mention, the leaders in the sector such as MSFT ORCL, the index IGV, just constantly making new lows.
Now look at after hours. MU w/ a massive earnings beat, its up huge along w/ other semis and memory names. Whereas AH the SAAS basket is flat and/or down. The MU beat and raise indicates hardware is STILL the play. Software will continued to be back-burnered, and I still believe MSFT will head down to around the 340 level prior to its next ER.