r/valueinvesting
Disney as a value investment.
Author views Disney as a value play with limited downside, citing streaming profitability, sports rights, and modest dividends.
- Trading at attractive valuations (P/B ~1.6, P/S ~1.8) with limited downside and a modest dividend.
- Streaming business has turned profitable, a major catalyst that the market hasn't fully priced in yet.
- Strong upcoming sports broadcasting slate (NFL, NBA, NHL, Super Bowl) and expectations for a solid August earnings report.
- Has been dead money for 5 years with stagnating revenue and no growth.
- Lingering negative sentiment from past DEI controversies and pandemic impacts on experience businesses.
Have been watching for the right entry for a while.
Been dead money for anyone already in for at least 5 years.
Trading at book value of around 1.6, p/s of 1.8.
Not going out of business, modest divy pays you to wait.
Current valuation is a result of many factors. Negative sentiment associated with DEI (2 CEO’s ago), stagnating revenue, no growth, experiences (cruises, parks, resorts) suffered during pandemic….
Now trading at just above book value, downside is limited and I expect to see steady growth.
Surprised share price hasn’t moved since reporting streaming turning a profit…. That was what I was waiting for.
Contract with NFL is especially interesting. NHL finals, nba finals, and Super Bowl…
Expecting a solid quarterly report in August.
Technicals displaying selling pressure drying up and a reversal that could lead to a continued uptrend.
Not a heavy position but holding 145 shares and a few calls.
Been dead money for 20 years
I sold out of mine this year, I'm just not sensing a catalyst up anytime soon. I do think there's minimal downside, the dividend is just ok. I really want to invest back into it at some point bc it would be great for portfolio diversification, they just need to somehow pump their Disney + subscriptions
Agree…
Something going on with the NFL and ESPN.
NFL took a 10% stake in ESPN… Redzone to broadcast on espn….
Another thing… partnered with a company to optimize ad revenue using ai. Probably just trying to make news, but there may be something real.
Regardless, I like it as a place to park capital and capture a recovery off a technical multi-year bottom.
Long term trend line and all technical indicators are signaling…
I expect a modest beat this coming quarter. Should see 115 a share if so. Maybe continue to 124 over a month if significant beat..
I also don’t see much else right now.
Target played well using simplistic analysis. Bought in between 88-90 and took profit around 122$ in my Roth.
My advice is to stay away.
The entire traditional media industry is a value trap. Disney, Warner Bros., Discovery, Paramount, etc... all value traps.
The problems are systemic.
Media is an extremely competitive business. NFL just does contracts with highest bidder. Dividend isn’t great with today’s rates.
It might do well, but I think there are better stocks for growth. As you said it's a steady value play. The brand is strong, but they face fierce competition. Also, I don't know how much longer Disney fans are going to stay loyal while prices climb. I have been a regular Disney World visitor in the past, but I'm increasingly exploring other alternatives.
I encourage you to always zoom out on charts. holding disney for 10 years, you would have basically broke even. Things can always change, but why not buy something that has created massive shareholder value over the last decade? there are plenty of very strong beat up names.
I've been DCAing as of late. Was waiting for sub 70s but that might take a while (or never). Lots of value waiting to be unlocked with the right leadership.
Do you believe DIS will outperform the S&P or Nasdaq? If so, what is your timeframe? And what is your reasoning?
They also are more than just a streaming service
It’s a buy in my opinion. They own the most media and media rights out of any company
They can’t really make money on their TV stuff because they pay so much to sports leagues fur rights fee. And there isn’t really a solution to this because they’re competing for these rights with companies that have near infinite amounts of money.
Disney owns some of the most valuable brands on the planet and when a business like that trades at close to what its assets are actually worth on paper rather than at a premium, it is the market saying something is seriously broken with the company. But I do think the streaming business turning profitable is a bigger deal than the stock price reaction suggests because for years Disney was spending billions to build Disney+ and the market was punishing them for it, so crossing into profitability removes a major overhang. Personally I'd wait to see a sign of momentum returning before trying to build a position, fine with missing out on buying at the bottom. Good luck to you!
you can say im in the know. i would avoid. not going anywhere.
I owned it for a while and sold for small profit. Competition is fierce, with AI it’s easier to make movies than ever before. Linear tv business is slowly dying. Theme parks are great but it’s high capital business.