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r/stocksr/stocks· u/skilliard7· 3d agoCompany Analysis 446

Microsoft is now cheaper than the April 2025 Tariff crash, yet TTM EPS is up 30%. Huge bargain

Investor summaryBullish

Author sees MSFT as a huge bargain with strong Azure, OpenAI synergy, and balanced capex, predicting it could double in 1-2 years.

Bull points
  • MSFT is trading at a highly attractive valuation compared to recent crashes despite 30% TTM EPS growth.
  • Strong fundamental drivers including Azure cloud growth, enterprise software resilience, and improving Copilot adoption.
  • Strategic advantages from OpenAI partnership and balanced capex that maintains growth without excessive debt.
MSFTNVDAGOOGLAI 资本开支半导体价值 / 回购
Post body

I had previously sold off Microsoft at $460, but I think they are probably one of the biggest bargains in big tech right now:

  • Very favorable exposure to OpenAI(20% revenue sharing agreement and rights to their models). Even if OpenAI keeps burning cash, they are benefitting from their top line revenue growth. When the revenue share agreement expires, OpenAI will likely achieve profitability, at which point Microsoft's ~25% OpenAI stake will be worth a lot.
  • Very strong Azure cloud growth
  • Enterprise software remains strong.
  • Despite the initial flop of Copilot, it's been improving a lot in recent months. Anecdotally, I know of a lot of people across a wide variety of professions that have started using it and are satisfied with the results.
  • They are beginning to roll out custom AI chips to compete with Nvidia.
  • Capex is well balanced, IMO. Not excessively aggressive like Google or Meta, but still significant enough to maintain growth while avoiding excessive risk. They are saving enough free cash flow to cover dividend and a small amount of buybacks without relying on Debt.
  • Shift from fixed cost billing to usage based billing on their AI products will likely result in substantial revenue growth.

I can easily see MSFT doubling in value in 1-2 years with how cheap they are right now.

Discussion · top comments15 selected
u/IncomingAxofKindness 14· 3d ago

I’ve never watched a margin call in real time before

u/RainieY 9· 3d ago

I never understood the capex worries in terms of valuation. They can stop the cap-ex anytime they want and go back to printing money. They are spending because they believe it will print them even more money. They are tech leaders with all the knowledge and info in the world, if anyone knows what capex is worth it and what isn't, it's them.

u/jowmawma 5· 2d ago

He gone man 🤣

u/TacticalcalCactus 3· 2d ago

I pulled my entire QQQ position last night and put it into MSFT, today MSFT was up 5% and QQQ was down 1% so I just rotated back with a free 6% QQQ gain. If it hits 355 ill do it again

u/volchonok1 3· 3d ago

And sp500 is up 71% in last 5 years. MSFT had a good run until 2021, but then it's growth slowed down dramatically.

u/Charming_Raccoon4361 3· 3d ago

That's copium, that was over search, this one is about over spending

u/dr_eh 2· 1d ago

I never said it was?

u/Freestyle80 2· 1d ago

Intel is the world's only real competition to TSMC, thats why it skyrocketed

u/RainbowCrown71 2· 2d ago

OpenAI is in rapid decline though. I stopped reading there.

u/Salt-Share8201 2· 2d ago

What stock in particular will 3-5x ?

u/BillyBobChorton 2· 2d ago

Micron trades at a PE of 10

u/dr_eh 2· 1d ago

That's forward PE.

u/AnnArbor-Armadillo 2· 2d ago

Seems like a good deal, or this could be the start of a major overall correction. Either way I’d rather buy now than at 550

u/nightdash1337 2· 3d ago

Macrohard you mean. Was trading a $520 just.

u/Pin-Last 2· 3d ago

I’m so ridiculously overweighted on it rn