r/baba
BABA distillation attacks on Anthropic makes me even MORE bullish (down 30%)
Author spins Alibaba's alleged AI theft as bullish for cheap model access, while holding a losing position and joking about a 98% drop.
- Alibaba can access top AI models at a fraction of the cost via distillation.
- Shows strong engineering talent to replicate the best AI.
- Consistent and growing dividends act as a bond proxy.
- Illicitly stealing US AI tech poses severe regulatory risks.
- Prolonged downtrend with author down 30% and joking about 98% loss.
"These distillation attacks are carried out illicitly, systematically, and at industrial scale to harvest U.S. Al capabilities"
Anthropic alleged Alibaba created almost 25,000 fake accounts and conducted nearly 29 million exchanges to access Claude.
I'm even more bullish. That means Alibaba has access to Claude's model at a fraction of the cost without having to spend on expensive training and this shows they're smart enough and engineeringly talented to copy the best.
My average buy price is around $130 and going down. Now down 30% which is crazy. Since I've committed to not using any stop loss I'm now locked in. I always "stop lossed" in the past and missed out on upside. I didn't want to miss out anymore, so I wanted to get in and wait it out as BABA makes more progress in AI.
Patience rewards those who stay locked in.
If you want to know my historical P&L
I've stayed locked in on quality names from covid times, and before 2019.
I'm down on everything, but it's okay.
Coupang of Korea
ADYEY - Payment processor which powers uber and others etc.
PYPL - biggest value trap ever
Baba will pay me 1% in dividends a year to have me keep holding. And they raised it by 2% to $0.02 per share as well. This shows consistency and makes up 30% of their EPS. I consider BABA like a bond proxy, since muni bond only pays 4.4% anyways.
So up 1% from the dividends for the year, and down 30%.
https://preview.redd.it/bjgeeihr9h9h1.png?width=132&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf6896a7f5eb67b48bc0a4bfcb36fe920f8aefde
https://preview.redd.it/zirwo0q3ah9h1.png?width=628&format=png&auto=webp&s=5079e1a5fe50c3d7a0eaf636e9378447afd1ea8e
I've waited 7 years for some stocks to rebound and it's totally okay, I'm not worried.
If you wait long enough, quality companies trending down with increasing revenues and FCF and market share, bet on new technologies will reverse, don't worry.
Trust me, look at my portfolio. Only down 98% over 7 years and still holding.
I will buy more BABA soon since anything under $95 is a steal.
I expect we go to about $60 ish, which means I will be down 50%.
Then I will load the boat with margin. At some point the buy backs are bound to lift the shares. A quality company can't stay low forever (chatgpt says)
No, the markets aren't devaluing and giving a lower P/E or P/S to chinese companies across the board. No way.
Good luck, and hold on guys. If you're ever stressed, don't look at your portfolio. Take a chill pill. Do some work outs. Look back in 10 years, and you will thank me later.