oil glut ..market massively oversupplied

Investor summaryBearish

The author presents data showing global crude oil supply will vastly exceed the 12mb/d market demand by mid-2026, indicating a massive oversupply.

Bear points

Global crude oil extra supply is projected to reach ~20.5-22.0 mb/d, far exceeding the market need of just 12 mb/d.
Multiple factors like increased production from the Middle East, Iran exports, and SPR releases will flood the market.
China's import reduction will further decrease demand, exacerbating the oversupply.

Post body

|Market needs just 12mb/d|June 2026|July 2026|

|:-|:-|:-|

||||

|EW Pipeline|2.0|2.0|

|Russia + Iran Oil on Water|1.5|1.0|

|China Import Reduction|4.0|5.0|

|UAE Fujairah Pipeline|2.0|2.0|

|Iran Crude Exports|3.5|4.0|

|Extra production (UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi, Qatar)|3.5|4.0|

|Rest of World SPR Release|1.0|1.0|

|US SPR Release|3.0|2.5|

|Production Cuts outside Arab Gulf + China|0.0|0.5|

|Total Extra Crude Oil|\~20.5 mb/d|\~22.0 mb/d|

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