050%

Enjoy shorting to make money!!

Investor summaryBearish

The author argues the global oil market is massively oversupplied, projecting a glut of ~20-22 mb/d by mid-2026, and urges shorting.

Bear points

Global oil market is massively oversupplied with an estimated extra supply of ~20.5 to 22.0 mb/d by mid-2026.
Market demand is only projected at 12 mb/d, far exceeded by combined extra supply from pipelines, SPR releases, and Middle East production.
Reduced Chinese imports and increased floating storage further exacerbate the supply glut.

USO降息与宏观

Post body

oil glut ..market massively oversupplied

|Market needs just 12mb/d|June 2026|July 2026|

|:-|:-|:-|

||||

|EW Pipeline|2.0|2.0|

|Russia + Iran Oil on Water|1.5|1.0|

|China Import Reduction|4.0|5.0|

|UAE Fujairah Pipeline|2.0|2.0|

|Iran Crude Exports|3.5|4.0|

|Extra production (UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi, Qatar)|3.5|4.0|

|Rest of World SPR Release|1.0|1.0|

|US SPR Release|3.0|2.5|

|Production Cuts outside Arab Gulf + China|0.0|0.5|

|Total Extra Crude Oil|\~20.5 mb/d|\~22.0 mb/d|

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