r/baba
Peak fear on reddit right now = Peak opportunity. loading BABA.
BABA is at a peak fear bottom with strong fundamentals, cheap valuation, and upcoming earnings/macro catalysts for a violent rebound.
- Stock is pricing in maximum pain despite intact fundamentals and strong moats in e-commerce and cloud.
- Trading at a single-digit forward PE ex-cash, making the AI and cloud businesses essentially free.
- Upcoming earnings and macro tailwinds (easing tariff rhetoric) will act as catalysts for a significant re-rating.
best setup I've seen on BABA in years. most people are missing it.
tonight is the bottom. mark it. by august nobody will even remember why they were panic selling here. the move back up is gonna be violent.
stock is pricing in maximum pain like the company is falling apart. but nothing has actually broken. zero. it's pure sentiment. fundamentals are fine.
the moats are still there. #1 e-commerce in china. #1 cloud in asia. Qwen approaching a billion users and becoming the default open-source AI globally. plus the Apple deal, baba is the AI inside iPhones in china. multi-year tailwind nobody is pricing in.
trading at single digit forward PE ex-cash. you're getting the AI and cloud business basically for free.
and the macro is lining up. Trump is clearly warming up the china narrative ahead of the year-end summit. tariff rhetoric is the loudest right before the deal. baba sails through this and the chinese tech basket rips. BABA makes new highs. not a question of if, just when.
next earnings is the catalyst. cloud reaccel + margin expansion re-rates this back to $150+ minimum.
risk limited. upside asymmetric.
I hope you're right. I can't even bear to open my ibkr. I Know my portfolio got raped by a hundred big black studded dildos .. no lube.
no. lube.
Extra rib and friction
-95% EPS, open an quaterly report
Because he had a few drinks. That’s why.
Sadly when it traded down beyond reason in 2022 the bottom signal was some buy saying he was going to hang himself in this subreddit.
I wouldn't call this peak fear yet.
50 billion in cash, 200billion market cap. If you include realistically some of their investments the stock cannot go below 55-60$ per share.
although hang seng is tank seng because of sluggish spending the huge monthly downside is prob more the AI play giving up. The producers of hardware and Chip makers and memory have skyrocketed this month and all AI providers have dropped like 20-30% even in the US market (MSFT PLTR). The AI bubble burst before our eyes just not for hardware yet.
I think the market is starting to price in the possibility of AI tokens becoming a complete commodity.
So all the hyper scalers burn billions and end up barely making a profit.
Meanwhile the hardware providers get fat and rich.
Did we just buy a stock in what will become the next airline industry?
current LLMs although highly useful will not reach "AGI" unless new techniques develop. I think with the current landscape of model quality really isnt the differentiating factor as with distillation competitors quickly catch up; its more the model harness which i think Anthropic has the biggest edge in right now but I also think something like this is pretty easy to copy as well.
I think there is ton more low to go given the horse before the cart exuberance and hardware providers will eventually come back down with everyone else. If AI providers stop building out because they can't they hardware providers will have no one to sell to...
I do think AI services is the unavoidable future but I also think the market for them will consolidate as things get bad and the ones that are vertically scaled will be the industrial giants. I think google probably is the best positioned and BABA is pretty good to but i think the part that is challenging no one can predict price movement given price is dictated by consensus and that is affected by so many things....
I made the mistake of not having a stop here in at 129-130 up to 145 i should of stopped out at 130s and scaled in later. Now i have no cash and pretty underwater... If i had more cash id prob add more but since i deployed everything I think the only logical thing to do is free some cash up for other opportunities by trimming. It feels the best option from all the lose lose options for me now.
Imagine the smell if this stock exceeds 200 within this year. I think a lot of people will be mad, and just as many happy.
Because when Winnie XI Pooh suddenly removed Baba's CEO the lowest it got was $80. Baba is down because Anthropic made some claims, Department of Defense can't buy Baba, Straight of Hormuz 'uncertainty'. Its like $10 from its lowest point and compared to removing your active CEO these are nothing.
It was $180 only a few months ago
Only legit concern is China's domestic economy but the real estate market has already bottomed out.
Nothing is working out for baba. U should really do your homework.
I can assure you this is NOT the bottom. Let’s bet.
Famous last words.