Delivery target for June prediction

There is a lot of speculation about whether NIO can actually cross the 40,000 monthly delivery milestone for June. If you look closely at the official milestone announcements dropped over the last few days for the ES8, ES9, and Onvo, the math shows that 40k is already a done deal.

Here is the exact breakdown and calculation based on existing, tracked company data:

1. The Tracked Milestone Numbers (Month-to-Date)

By comparing NIO's newly announced cumulative milestones against their official May 31 closing numbers, we can extract exact June delivery figures for key models:

NIO ES9 (The Flagship SUV): NIO just announced its 10,000th cumulative delivery for the ES9. It closed May at 3,108 deliveries.

June Month-to-Date: 10,000 - 3,108 = 6,892 units

Onvo L60: The Onvo brand announced it just crossed its 100,000th cumulative delivery. It sat at 97,654 at the end of May.

June Month-to-Date: 100,000 - 97,654 = 2,346 units

NIO ES8: NIO announced its 120,000th cumulative ES8 delivery on June 22. Given it logged 11,472 retail sales in May, it is safely maintaining a baseline of roughly 11,000 units for June to cross that line.

Total for just these 3 tracked milestones: \~20,238 vehicles.

2. Factoring in the Rest of the Lineup

To find the true total, we have to add the rest of NIO's massive portfolio. In May, the rest of the lineup—including the premium core (ES6, EC6, ET5, ET5T, ET7), the newly launched mass-market Onvo L80, and Firefly—combined for 21,079 units.

If we assume the rest of the catalog stayed completely flat compared to last month:

20,238 (Tracked Milestones) + 21,079 (Rest of Portfolio) = 41,317 vehicles.

3. Why the Final Number Will Likely Be Way Higher (48k - 55k)

The "flat" calculation is an ultra-conservative baseline. In reality, NIO is in hyper-growth mode right now:

Q2 Guidance Check: NIO's Q2 guidance is 110k–115k. Having delivered 29.3k in April and 37.7k in May, they only need 42.9k to hit the low end. They traditionally guide to hit their targets.

Insane Order Backlog: Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank trackers showed NIO Group secured over 47,000 firm orders in just the first two weeks of June, heavily driven by the new Onvo L80 five-seater and the ES9 premium trims (which currently have 16+ week waitlists).

TL;DR

The milestone numbers prove mathematically that NIO's baseline floor for June is already at 41,317 vehicles. The 40k hurdle is cleared. With the massive factory ramp-up to clear the Onvo and ES9 backlog, we are realistically tracking toward a record-shattering 48,000 to 55,000 deliveries when the official numbers drop on July 1.

Positions: Long NIO. Let's see those Q2 margins expand!