r/valueinvesting
Micron Technology, MU is overvalued
MU is overvalued as contract price ceilings limit upside and historical cyclicality poses severe downside risks despite AI-driven gains.
- Locked in solid profits for the next few years
- Contract price ceilings set at 2026 Q2 levels limit future earnings upside
- High historical cyclicality poses severe downside risks if demand falters or supply increases
MU went up so much this year and last year. That was because DRAM and SSD prices went up massively from AI demand combined with restricted supply.
However in the latest earnings report, Micron have said that their largest contracts now have a ceiling price set at the 2026Q2 market price. That means less potential upside for earnings and share price growth in the next few years.
The downsides are still there. MU went up 5x to hit $88 during the dot com bubble, a few years later it was beow $10 and hitting a low of around $3 in 2008.
MU has locked in good profits for the next few years but if demand falters or supply from competitors increases, the future beyond that will be forecast as far less profitable and share prices can fall drastically.
Was cyclical before AI, bud. Have fun with your oil stocks.
Haven’t been following this stock that much, but I learnt yesterday that the vast majority of its growth is because it aggressively increases the price of its products, not because of demand accelerating at these seemingly insane rates. So like… isn’t that bad, they can’t keep raising prices forever.
Sorry you missed the melt up, maybe next time!
No one can predict the future. Every stocks listed on the NASDAQ goes up and down in the long run. However, we do know MU, SK HYNIX, SAMSUNG are completely sold out on HBM memory and NAND Flash chips until 2028. Yes, I don't know whether memory market will peak during 2029 or 2030, but who cares. I know for sure these Ai memory companies will be extremely profitable until 2028. I will easily double my Money holding MU, SK and SAMSUNG until end of 2027. Google, MSFT, META, TESLA, BROADCOM, AMAZON...all committed $700 billion dollars in 2026 and $900 billion dollars for 2027 building up data centers. I just follow the Money. Go MU, SK HYNIX and SAMSUNG!
Its product \has\ changed. HBM is the architectural change that has shifted AI memory needs from commodity to strategic need at the same level as the chip. They are now packaged versus adding commodity memory after finalizing the chip. That’s the entire thesis behind increased multiples for memory companies. It will take a different AI accelerator architecture to minimize this which so far hasn’t been developed.
Forward PE bro DUH!!
😂😂😂 those contracts are guaranteed!!!
We are also hoping that the three memory companies are smart enough not to slit their own throats by building out capacity and engaging in a price war this time around. In a market that concentrated, it is certainly possible.
More random data out of your ass? MICRON has not release any details of these contracts.
What a clown.
You might want to do some homework before spewing nonsense outta your ass. Their best margin led to $80 but lower margins led to $1200?? And this makes sense to you? This is a simple question AI can answer all day long. BTW it was 35% margin at $80.
Supply and demand remain incredibly strong, and they've already locked in contracts BEYOND 2027. Micron just reported earnings that were around 15× estimates, and several banks have raised their price targets to the $1,500–$2,000 range. To me, that all points to this still being a great investment opportunity. I'm not buying into the online negativity or the constant attempts to drive sentiment lower and shake people out of their positions. They can do what they want—I’m sticking to the fundamentals.
It may be cyclical and eventually upside may reverse, but I've been seeing posts like this since mu was priced at $200, had i listened would've missed the 5x gain on my 1k+ shares till now!
You got lucky that some companies decided to waste hundreds of billions.
Hundreds of billions on technology that actually works and can ultimately end my software engineering career. If ai really is overhyped and not sustainable for factors like compute cost & power constraints, oh well guess at least my current job is safer