$INR has 80% upside and currently has a 83% short float

Infinity Natural Resources is an independent oil and gas producer focused on the Appalachian Basin, mainly the Utica Shale in eastern Ohio and Marcellus/Utica dry gas assets in southwest Pennsylvania. They just completed an acquisition of Antero to fill out their upstream and midstream assets, and their overall production is up 88% YoY (with LNG up 159% YoY).

Where things get interesting is the share structure. As of Q1, they have 18.75M Class A shares outstanding and 44.78M Class B shares outstanding. However, Finviz and MarketWatch shows only 2.93M in the public float, with 2.43M shares short. That’s a 83% short float. But that's just a part of the puzzle.

Their financials look pretty solid. P/E around 4.4, Forward P/E around 3, PEG around 0.11, price/sales around 1.9, and price/book around 1.3. Their EV/EBITDA is a little elevated compared to the broader E&P sector at around 8, but that likely has to do with their recent acquisitions effects on enterprise value and the contributions from those assets not being rolled into the TTM numbers yet. As for debt, they have $550M in senior notes at 7.625% maturing in 2031. Not bad considering their revenue just went from $85.2M in Q1 2025 to $154.9M in Q1 2026. Those acquisitions are starting to pay off. It’s not all rosy though since they do have some oil swap obligations below spot, but that’s just capping their profit and accounts for roughly 56% of their oil production. Their LNG swaps are currently above spot though, and cuts their potential derivative loss.

Their reserves are also in good shape. They’ve reported 224.989 MMBoe of total proved reserves with nearly half of that developed reserves. Based on 2025 production that gives them 17 years of reserve life, but with production ramping up they’re more on track for 10 years of reserve life. Some of that still needs to be worked out though since stated reserves predate the Antero acquisition but 2026 production rates are inclusive of new operations.

Analysts also seem to have mostly positive outlooks. A few ratings got downgraded from Strong Buy as a result of the acquisitions as Wall Street waits to see how they navigate their growth era, but they've maintained buy and hold ratings with only one downgrade to sell. Consensus targets sit around $22-24 for 70-85% upside.

The stock has taken an unnecessary beating lately, down about 35% off the 52-week high. It’s also trading below the 20-, 50-, and 200- day moving averages. Insiders have taken notice and have been mostly buying like crazy. Four of their directors have bought 147,500 shares on the open market  at an average cost of $13.30 over the past three months. One caveat is CFO sold 275K shares at $17 back in March, but that was right after a Class B to Class A conversion, so could have just been a liquidity or diversification play.

Speaking of their execs, you’ve got a ton of E&P experience in the C-suite. The CEO worked at Chesapeake and Chevron. The CFO comes from Tudor Pickering Holt. And their Chairman? Co-founded RSP Permian which merged with Concho before being acquired by ConocoPhillips. These people know how to build E&P companies.

So what’s gonna move the needle? Their next earnings is 8/10. By then we should get a clearer picture of how the acquisitions have been integrated and the overall effect on their operations. If Q2 can show strong production, good realized pricing, controlled capex, guidance reaffirmed or raised, and less GAAP chaos from derivatives, I’d expect to be well on the way to analyst targets. They also have a $75M share buyback authorization with much of it remaining. If management gets aggressive, that would build a floor and tighten the float.

Risks

• The float math and share structure is a little wonky. Finviz and MarketWach are showing 83% short float while Fintel has 11% (though Fintel hasn't updated with the new short numbers). They also have a lot of Class B's that will eventually affect floats.
• Options liquidity is low. Spreads are super wide and there's little activity. This is more of a buy the stock and wait.
• $450M–$500M development capital is a big spend. If wells disappoint, costs rise, or prices weaken, free cash flow gets hammered.
• Q1 had a $65M derivative loss. Hedges reduce risk, but they also cap upside. If commodity prices rip and hedge marks go against them, GAAP EPS can look like shit even if operations are fine.
• It's commodity pricing. If oil and LNG drop, they only have so much room on their hedges before revenue/profits cut down enough to make their debt a concern.

I still think at its core there's not a lot of room to fall but has solid room to run. The market isn't loving E&P right now, but when the AI fad dies down or it comes time to power data centers, LNG will be there waiting.

Positions: 2K shares at $12.80, as well as some options expiring before and after earnings.