r/options
SPACEX Calls Are Now Dirt Cheap
Author recommends buying cheap short-dated OTM calls on SPCX ahead of massive Nasdaq inclusion buying pressure, exiting before lockups.
- Implied volatility is crushed, making options premiums unusually cheap.
- Extremely limited float combined with ~$10B buying pressure from Nasdaq inclusion next week.
- Share lockup expirations will start weighing on the price soon after the proposed trade horizon.
For those who understand volatility, this July/August expiry chart is genuinely strange. Implied volatility on SpaceX has been crushed since IPO — the market is currently pricing in daily moves of under 5%.
But has the market already forgotten the float situation? It's still extremely limited, and we're looking at roughly $10 billion in buying pressure — around 15% of the float — hitting at the end of next week with Nasdaq inclusion.
With the stock around $155, my play is short-dated OTM calls expiring early-to-mid July. The goal is to be out before share lockup expirations start weighing on the price. Take a look at the $170 calls and price them out yourself. The premium is wildly low given what could happen.