Full port $AAOI

Investor summaryBullish

All-in on AAOI as the highest beta photonics play for the next AI bottleneck, citing massive revenue guidance vs its $11B market cap.

Bull points

Massive revenue guidance: Guiding for $471M/month revenue next year, implying $5.5B annualized revenue against a current $11B market cap.
High beta play on photonics: Positioned as the highest beta stock in the photonics sector, which the author believes will be the next bottleneck for AI.
Asymmetric upside: Even with potential execution risks or missed guidance, the stock is expected to trade materially higher in a year.

Bear points

Execution risk: The author explicitly acknowledges that missing guidance or poor execution is very possible.

AAOIAI 资本开支半导体

Post body

Went all in on AAOI earlier this morning

They are guiding for 471m / month of revenue by this time next year, so if they hit that they would be doing an annualized 5.5B of revenue.

Despite that guidance they are at a 11B market cap today

Even if they miss guidance or execution (very possible) the stock should still be trading materially higher a year from now

The next bottleneck of AI will be photonics mark my words, AAOI is the highest beta play you can find for the photonics sector

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