redditalpha logoredditalpha
← Back to dashboard
Share
1100%
r/investingr/investing· u/Brilliant_Builder697· 2d ago 0

noticed 20 genomics/sequencing stocks all breaking out the same week. can't tell if it's a real rotation or I'm just pattern-matching noise

Investor summaryNeutral

The author observes a broad breakout in genomics stocks driven by falling rates but questions sustainability due to low volume.

Bull points
  • Falling interest rates and a disinflationary environment boost long-duration, unprofitable genomics stocks with distant terminal values.
Bear points
  • The broad breakout lacks confirming volume, with relative volume around 1x or lower for most names, suggesting a potential quiet drift rather than a true rotation.
TWSTMRVINEONTRAILMN降息与宏观
Post body

So I run a screen across 2800 nasdaq names, returns over a few horizons, distance from 52w highs, relative volume, dispersion, that kind of stuff. mostly to keep myself honest on the macro instead of trading off headlines. been doing it daily for a while now.

this week one thing stuck out and I've been chewing on it for a couple days so figured I'd just put it here and see if anyone's seeing the same thing or can tell me why I'm wrong.

there's a clump of genomics / DNA sequencing / diagnostics names that are all going to new highs at basically the same time. not one or two flyers, more like 20-25 of them. Twist (TWST) is up 100%+ over 3 months, Maravai 98%, NeoGenomics +77, Veracyte 79, then CareDx, Natera, Guardant, and even Illumina which has been dead money for literally years is up 40. the median name in that bucket is +33% over 3mo against roughly +4% for the whole nasdaq. so it's not just two rockets dragging the average up, the actual group is moving together.

why now, and this is just my read so push back: rates have been coming down and commodities are getting wrecked, gold/oil/silver all down double digits on the month. that's a disinflation tape. and the thing about most of these genomics companies is they make no money, the whole value is terminal-value way out in the future. so when the discount rate drops they're exactly the names that rip. long-duration equity basically. that part kind of makes sense to me.

here's what's actually bugging me though, and the real reason I'm posting. almost none of it has volume behind it. price is making new highs but relative volume is sitting around 1x, sometimes under. my screen literally tags most of them "needs volume." only a couple (Maravai, Natera) have real volume confirming the move. so I honestly can't tell if I'm early, in before the crowd, which is where you want to be, or if this is just a quiet drift higher that folds the second the tape turns.

I've got a small starter in TWST and I'm watching NEO, so that's my bias, take it for what it's worth.

couple things I'm genuinely trying to figure out:

does a breakout with no volume mean anything to you, or do you just wait for the volume even if it means giving up the first leg? I go back and forth on this constantly.

and if anyone actually follows this space, is there a fundamental catalyst here I'm missing (some approval cycle, funding thing, M&A chatter?) or is it really just the rate move pulling the whole group up at once?

not advice, I'm a macro guy poking at a sector I don't know that well, which is half the reason I'm asking.

Discussion · top comments15 selected
u/ConsiderationLow2240 22· 2d ago

What platform do you use to run such a screen?

u/ChloeOntario314 1· 1d ago

Love it

u/foradil 14· 2d ago

Biotech has been taking a beating for over 3 years. It has to bounce back at some point. The rest of the market has been on a roll.

u/nom_yourmom 1· 10h ago

XBI is up 87% in the last year?

u/foradil 1· 7h ago

And only 13% in the last five years

u/OnTheGoTrades 11· 2d ago

Classic sector / industry rotation. Regarding your concern about volume: just remember that volume doesn’t pay you, only price does.

u/Brilliant_Builder697 4· 1d ago

Volume is a confirmation signal. Obvs if I get a good price, I will take it 😂

u/OnTheGoTrades 1· 12h ago

It can sometimes be a signal but I’ve also seen many trends last for months without huge volume spikes.

u/Effective_End8731 9· 1d ago

Check for a nice ETF that ties them all together. If a niche ETF came out and funds dropped into it then its synthetic demand via the ETF. A lot of that is going on lately.

u/itschaboy___ 3· 1d ago

GH and NTRA have had several approvals/reimbursement wins this year. Not all that close to NEO or VCYT but it seems like their core businesses are humming.

TWST and ILMN are derivative plays on the industry so makes sense they'd be up too, though ILMN is more of a complicated product cycle/China story. MRVI is borderline special sits.

You're 100% right on the rates argument. But also if you're an institution its much easier to be long Dx vs core tools (typically grouped together) given valuations there and the constant head fake rebounds. Also assume people are starting to shift some money within HC out of biopharma after the YTD run, and Dx gives you some similar factor exposure.

Haven't seen much spec dx discussion on reddit since covid, good shit

u/Arctex 2· 1d ago

do you literally only post AI written garbage? only when you are writing in english it seems

u/IncomeOverHype_ 2· 2d ago

Feels like a sector rotation mixed with a short-covering bounce. The next pullback should show whether there’s real leadership underneath it.

u/Brilliant_Builder697 1· 1d ago

Agree. A pull back will certainly show us what is really strong in the sector. And there is a lot of short covering after awful years for biotech.

u/hseeman_sf 1· 8h ago

IBD top 50 signaling the same thing. Lots of healthcare/biotech in the list. Sector rotation for sure. Not sure there's a good reason for it, other than it being an underperforming sector for last 5 years

u/jtmn 1· 1d ago

Is the fee that high?