r/letfs
Choosing a strategy- predicting choppy seas ahead
Author seeks an ETF strategy for expected volatility, rising rates, and AI cooldown, asking for cash vehicle recommendations.
- Expectation of higher overall interest rates and decreasing liquidity.
- Anticipation of a reckoning or reduced mania in the AI super cycle, leading to choppier markets.
Have been following Gormans posts and reading about the mechanics of things like hfea, 9 sig, SMA, etc. Not getting too deep, just the overview. I would like to move bulk of investment funds into one soon as I’ve got career changes happening shortly and won’t have the free time to manage things anymore. While it’s no guarantee, the consensus is that we’re moving towards higher rates overall, decreasing liquidity, and possibly some reckoning, or at least less mania, for the ol AI super cycle. I’m guessing things will be choppier, more volatility, fewer sustained trends, etc. in the short to medium. If that thesis were true, which strategy would be best suited to navigate the conditions? And bonus question- which of the various vehicles for your “cash” position rides it best - agg, bil, sgov, gld, etc?