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r/stockmarketr/stockmarket· u/aperartnft· 1d agoDiscussion 0

If I had to pick one AI semiconductor outside Nvidia today, I'd probably lean towards Broadcom over AMD.

Investor summaryBullish

Author favors Broadcom over AMD for long-term AI exposure due to its diversified infrastructure and custom ASIC business.

Bull points
  • Broadcom benefits from all AI infrastructure buildouts regardless of which specific AI chip wins.
  • AMD has significant upside potential due to its smaller base and gaining server/GPU market share.
  • Hyperscalers investing heavily in custom AI chips directly benefits Broadcom's ASIC business.
Bear points
  • Broadcom faces extremely high market expectations, creating a high bar for every earnings report.
  • AMD is primarily competing in the highly competitive merchant silicon market.
AVGOAMDAI 资本开支半导体
Post body

This isn't because I think AMD is a lesser company. Quite the opposite, AMD has executed incredibly well over the last few years. EPYC has taken real server share, Instinct GPUs are finally getting traction with hyperscalers, and Lisa Su has built one of the best turnaround stories in tech.

But Broadcom feels like it's playing a different game. AMD is still largely competing to sell more chips. Broadcom is helping build the AI infrastructure itself. It sits behind networking, switching, custom AI ASICs, high-speed connectivity and now VMware giving it another software layer on top. The more AI clusters get built, the more places Broadcom seems to show up.

Companies like Google, Meta and now even OpenAI are investing heavily in their own AI chips. Broadcom isn't competing against those projects, it's helping build many of them. The recent OpenAI custom inference chip announcement was another reminder of that.

That doesn't mean that AMD can't keep winning. If MI350 and future Instinct generations continue improving, there's still a massive AI accelerator market to grow into. AMD probably has more upside if it keeps taking share because it's coming from a much smaller base.

I just think Broadcom has more ways to win. AI networking, merchant silicon, custom ASICs, VMware, enterprise infrastructure, it doesn't feel like the company is betting on one product cycle. It's almost becoming the "behind-the-scenes" company for AI infrastructure.

Ironically, the biggest risk for Broadcom might just be expectations. The market already knows it's an AI winner, so every earnings report gets judged against an incredibly high bar. AMD feels more like it still has something to prove, while Broadcom has to keep proving it over and over again.

If I had to own only one for the next decade, I'd probably take Broadcom. Not because I think it'll build the best AI chip, but because it seems determined to make money no matter whose AI chip ends up winning.

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Discussion · top comments15 selected
u/Boys4Ever 1· 1d ago

Broadcom seems more of an institutional play vs Nvidia or AMD with latter two almost meme like

u/aperartnft 1· 1d ago

I kind of get what you mean. Broadcom feels more like a boring long term play business, whereas Nvidia and especially AMD attract a lot more retail attention because they're the obvious AI chip names. Broadcom's AI story is also less visible, it sits behind networking, custom ASICs and infrastructure rather than the headline GPUs, which probably makes it feel more institutional.

u/ShowerMotor 1· 1d ago

TLDR: I bought broadcom and you should as well.

u/biotribe 1· 16h ago

WOLF?

u/Boring_Asparagus9865 1· 18h ago

And this is why retail investors lose money

u/fake212121 1· 1d ago

ASML. Im adding into it if i see a red day, minimum 100-300$ i will add. Within 6-7 months I got like close to 5 shares and almost 30% up.

AMD is way went up and others like mrvl qualcomm intel. I would pick broadcom if i hat to chose amd cs avgo vs mrvl

u/aperartnft 1· 21h ago

ASML is a tough one to argue against over the long run. It's one of the few true bottlenecks in the entire semiconductor industry. On Broadcom vs AMD, I mostly agree with your reasoning. AMD probably has the higher upside if it keeps taking AI share but Broadcom feels like the more diversified AI infrastructure play and after the recent pullback the expectations are a bit more grounded.

u/aperartnft 1· 1d ago

MRVL is a solid shout too. It has real exposure to AI networking, custom silicon and cloud infrastructure. I still lean Broadcom because it's more diversified and throws off a lot more cash, but if AI infrastructure spending stays strong, I think Marvell has plenty of room to execute as well.

u/Any-Yogurtcloset-493 1· 1d ago

Broadcom also has an advantage that many investors underestimate: diversification within AI. If GPU demand ever becomes more competitive or commoditized, networking, custom ASICs, and infrastructure software give Broadcom multiple engines of growth instead of relying on a single product category.

u/aperartnft 1· 1d ago

That's a big part of why I lean Broadcom too. It's not really making a single AI bet, it has exposure to networking, custom ASICs, optical connectivity, VMware and enterprise infrastructure. Even if one area slows, there are multiple ways for AI spending to keep flowing through the business. That's a pretty nice position to be in.

u/Low-Cartographer8758 1· 1d ago

I did not expect this headwind from Broadcom. There is no clear reason why NVIDIA and Broadcom are experiencing such a downturn in the stock market, even after the positive earnings reports. I want to know why! My only guess is that the two CEOs are not white. lol

u/aperartnft 1· 1d ago

I think it's more about expectations than the businesses themselves. When you're trading at premium multiples, great earnings often aren't enough, you have to perform as per what the market had already priced in. Add concerns about AI capex, export restrictions, and some profit-taking after huge runs, and you can get weak price action even with excellent fundamentals. That's happened to a lot of AI names recently, not just Broadcom and Nvidia.

u/Low-Cartographer8758 1· 1d ago

Lol, it’s pretty absurd when the price action no longer reflects the underlying business but instead the market’s expectations.

I’ve also been seeing more headlines suggesting that this could be the beginning of an AI bubble. Between the recent volatility across semiconductor stocks, the PCE data, and growing scepticism about AI spending, it honestly feels like we’re walking on eggshells.

At times, the market feels less like trading and more like gambling.

u/redditissocoolyoyo 1· 1d ago

Dude... No.

u/otterhaven 1· 1d ago

I already sold most of mine