r/stockmarket
After Micron earnings, July is a complete minefield. $31 EPS guidance by Micron and now 10 upcoming earnings reports = R.I.P. traders
Author is bearish on semis ahead of July earnings, fearing unrealistic AI capex expectations will trigger a market correction.
- Unrealistic expectations: The baseline for AI earnings is now so high that any slight miss will trigger a rapid sentiment shift.
- Earnings minefield: With 10 major tech/semi earnings in July, the probability of all clearing the bar is very low.
- AI capex risk: Any sign of slower AI capital expenditure from major players could quickly change market sentiment.
Being a trader, before Micron earnings, my exit strat was:
- ≤ $25 EPS guidance: exit instantly
- $25-27 EPS: still reduce or exit
- > $27 EPS: continue holding and reassess after the next earnings
Instead, Micron guided $31 EPS. That made me more bearish, not less.
If $31 EPS is now the fucking baseline, what does the overall market expect next?
Yeah and heeeeeeeere comes July... earnings from ASML, TSMC, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Intel, Microsoft, Alphabet, and others. The Micron earnings release was choking the entire world, but we have almost 10 more of those coming in the next month.
That's an absolute minefield. The market only needs one of these companies to deliver weaker guidance, slower AI capex, or simply fail to exceed extreme expectations for sentiment to change rapidly.
I'm not bearish on AI. I'm bearish on the probability that every single major AI earnings report over the next month clears an increasingly unrealistic bar.
That's why I expect a meaningful correction during July.
Curious how other traders are positioning. I plan on significantly reducing my semi position in peace meal over the next months.
lol my first thought
MU in 2022/24 cycle did not have the contracts they are negotiating with the buyers.
There was recent TV comment where someone from MU had said that Apple refused to pay for any price increases then, and MU shelved their capacity build plans.
Yes - you are correct, it is cyclical and MU is going to load up their money trucks for the next 0-3 year. Question is do you care if it is only 0-3, and when will market start to discount.
Not selling anytime soon
My cost is $60 a share and I'm selling as the price goes up as a risk management exercise.
I hold stocks for 10-15+ years (yes really), bought MU around 30 and it was grounded for almost 8 years and now it is riding and have no reason to sell.
Look, I have a handful of stocks that I am happy to let it run for another 15-20 years, and maybe put it on a estate wrapper. This is one of them,
Nature of supplier agreements has changed - approx 50% of prices / supply are contracted to the buyers per the biz news channels
Need to look up one of the buy-side reports on MU
Supply and demand remain incredibly strong, and they've already locked in contracts through 2027. Micron just reported earnings that were around 15× estimates, and several banks have raised their price targets to the $1,500–$2,000 range. To me, that all points to this still being a great investment opportunity. I'm not buying into the online negativity or the constant attempts to drive sentiment lower and shake people out of their positions. They can do what they want—I’m sticking to the fundamentals.
Dvlt has till late august to be compliant with nasdaq. Either reverse split or delist but that’s in August. The entire month of July is an opportunity for us to print $$$
Dvlt is at a low of .33. When everyone invests it’s an .86 stock. Lots of room to print $$$ plus an easy way to double your investment.
Haha I was gonna post the YouTube link because the post was literally word by word
I think July could definitely be more volatile than usual, especially with multiple major earnings coming up.
Personally, I try to avoid making aggressive bets right before earnings unless I have a clear risk plan. A good earnings report doesn't always mean the stock goes up, and a bad report doesn't always mean it crashes.
For me, managing position size has become more important than trying to predict the reaction.
Just look at Avgo, the forward guidance was not fantastic so the stock sold off. It will have a dip but not a major crash. Nothing to worry about . Big tech has already sold off before the earnings, the expectation has been lowered
Semiconductors are to the nowadays economy what was oil in the 60-80.
USA has 4000-5000 datacenters, and is planning to double.
The rest of the world is trying to catch up and it is 10 years behind. And quantum computing, edge device implementation and humanoids are just starting.
To fill the gap, the semiconductors will be sold out beyond the 2-3years.
It is not anymore a cyclical industry.
If micron delivers bad EPS then you would say it’s bad. So micron delivered fantastic EPS, you also call it bad. What can satisfy you
I was reading this post and was like this sounds so familiar, where the fuck did I here it from lmao.
People outside Silicon Valley don't realize how much DRAM we actually need. This is only the beginning.
didn't get it, why a low PE indicates the commodity is richly valued relative to historical prices?