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How would it affect Alphabets business if Gemini doesn’t lead coding? it’s currently very behind
Investor summaryBearish
Author questions Alphabet's future if Gemini lags in agentic coding, as rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI prioritize this key sector.
Bull points
- Strategically reallocating compute resources towards AI search integration and scaling TPU cloud infrastructure.
- Maintains state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in multimodal AI capabilities.
Bear points
- Falling significantly behind competitors like Anthropic and OpenAI in the lucrative agentic coding sector.
- Risk of missing out on a massive market, which could negatively impact core business growth and value capture.
GOOGAI 资本开支
Post body
Anthropic has been code first for years
OpenAI just dropped everything (Sora etc) to FULL PORT on coding models too
Google… just doesn’t seem to be taking this one that seriously? This year it seems to be spending compute on other things like AIMode for search at scale, bolstering the TPU business via cloud, etc.
after Gemini 3 pro proved GOOG could have a frontier, they haven’t done much after and appear to be making other long term bets
Gemini is SOTA in many areas like multimodal etc but way behind agentic coding
QUESTIONS:
- does this matter?
- Is agentic coding gonna be a high premium business where value is captured by incremental intelligence gains? Thus they miss out?
Or will it be a race to the bottom with GLM5.2 etc
- What happens if it is a big market and they miss out entirely? Are any of their main businesses affected?
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