Netflix, Mastercard, and Meta. Three holdings that I am depositing more cash into.
Adding to NFLX, MA, and META based on strong free cash flows, asset-light models, and solid leadership despite macro and political risks.
- NFLX exhibits strong free cash flow and low debt, ensuring stability despite potential revenue growth slowdowns.
- MA benefits from an asset-light model and duopoly market share, generating robust cash flow even in a tough macro environment.
- META's valuation is attractive given Zuckerberg's proven leadership and the company's ongoing innovation.
- NFLX faces potential revenue growth slowdowns and intense competition from other streaming giants.
- META is exposed to political and regulatory risks stemming from shifting partisan sentiments and election outcomes.
Netflix has a free cash flow that is contradictory to how the market has been treating it in the past few weeks. Considering their debt is low enough that it isn't a wide concern (AKA No WBD merger), I can see this stock easily trading in the 80s range. I'm not saying it's worth a 90 or 100 dollars a piece. But a 10% gain before the end of the year, as long as the other streaming giants dont release an insanely good movie like Obsession, is well within reach. I bought and sold netflix shares a few months ago during all the WBD talks, and I consistently bought in the low 70s range and sold in the high 90s. This is the same scenario playing out. Even if revenue growth is expected to slow down, that doesn't change the fact that millions of households will be using netflix for at least the next few years. I think this stock is a buy.
Mastercard relies on very little physical liabilities for it's revenue. It is up to the merchant/buyer. Considering consumer spending sits at a generally high level even with all these concerns about a recession, household struggles, and a declining socioeconomic climate, when I go out, I see people making purchases more than they should be. Other than Visa, no other company can compare to mastercard's market share, meaning the free cash flow is also going to be quite healthy. This stock should not be trading below 500. I also can see a 500B market cap in this company in the near future, and I think these levels are just a good way to lower the cost bases.
Meta. This company is not worth 1.4T. Even if Meta doesn't have cloud services nor do they sell any products that meaningfully impacts revenue, Mark Zuckerberg is a person who knows what he is doing. He still has a good 20 or more years of leadership ahead of him, and the company is far from being past its prime. Political risks are something to consider, since general sentiment around the republican party sits at a strong negative, leading to potentially a democratic win for 2028, but you can always rebalance before then, and I think in the next two years, Meta can generate some serious profits with their ad business. Look at how many individuals betwen the ages of 10 and 40 use instagram. That number only continues to grow (instagram's growth is well in a positive trend).
I will be taking this opportunity to lower my cost bases for the stocks. I am not discovering anything fantastic, and I know we have talked about this many times here, but when the stock refuses to move, that in my eyes is just more time to convert cash into quality stocks at fair prices.

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