r/wallstreetbets
Did DJT just fuck the U.S. AI industry?
US restrictions on top AI models are paving the way for cheaper, highly capable Chinese LLMs to capture market share.
- Chinese LLMs offer near-frontier intelligence at a fraction of the cost of US models.
- US restrictions on OpenAI and Anthropic create a vacuum for alternative AI providers.
- US frontier labs have spent hundreds of billions on GPUs with little to show for it due to government bans.
- Chinese companies are successfully distilling capabilities from restricted US models to compete globally.
Listen up regards, cuz I know that thick skull is hard to get through.
2 weeks ago, Antropic's latest Claude Mythos 5 & Fable models got banned. Today news came out that this was "partially rolled back", but Mythos 5 is available to only 100 select companies.
Same deal different shit, OpenAI's 5.6 has also been restricted.
Problem is, these frontier labs have spent hundreds of billions now investing in GPUs and research, with nothing to show for it. Dario admitted himself that people pay for models with the highest intelligence.
https://preview.redd.it/uuztmvjjc0ah1.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9b0c19f74de4ff95b5e0f8d5495d0163a2af189
We all know OpenAI & Anthropic trained these models on every piece of data not nailed down. But the problem is, Chinese AI companies are turning around and distilling from these big AI corpos.
GLM, Deepseek, Moonshot Kimi, MiniMax, Stepfun, Baidu Ernie, Alibaba Qwen, Xiaomi Mimo, Tencent, you name it.
Seems like everyone and their mom has a frontier LLM now. And now GLM 5.2 is near frontier level, with less than 5 percentage points difference from Opus 4.8 Medium-effort. But costs basically a fraction of Claude.
https://preview.redd.it/2d4eflz9e0ah1.png?width=2500&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f3798cd228ac827187e8cb2878042fb8a71b9fb
GLM 5.2 costs $4.4 per million output, while Opus 4.8 costs $25 per million output, nearly 85% lower cost.
Obviously everyone wants to use Fable/ChatGPT-5.6, but if you can't, and you're stuck at Opus 4.8, why shouldn't you just costs by 85%?
And if Fable/Mythos/ChatGPT-5.6 get unbanned? I'm betting open source LLM labs will just distill them again...
Now we have OpenAI is delaying their IPO, until maybe 2027 to clean up their balance sheet, I somehow don't think any of these frontier labs will ever make a single cent.
Could be just like the airline industry:
- Massive capital costs (GPUs versus Planes)
- Relatively fixed per user costs (No more SAAS cost reduction)
- Basically commodity products (you got a small percentage of people paying for first class & super duper intelligence, while the rest of us plebs fly economy class on whoever is cheapest)
- Tight security (manual identity verification versus TSA pat down)
- Capital equipment leasing companies (Hyperscalers versus Aircraft Leasing Companies)
So what happens next?
OpenAI & Anthropic have their premium models basically banned, you got open source LLM companies being only a few months behind. Costs are not coming down, and these companies need to IPO to so retails can pass this onto the next sucker.
https://preview.redd.it/izezsc3wg0ah1.png?width=1347&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef2394e8285598ace92a2c86087cb2c198a5848b
Position: Puts on every AI company once they IPO 🐒
https://preview.redd.it/booe19dei0ah1.jpeg?width=622&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9fc8a3d721a5abb92dae47e5a43e8998d85e3828
Usually my most hated comments historically produce the best predictions and results. I should make a graph. It means hatred because you blindly wish what I say isn't true.
It would be easy to put my brain in a blender 😄
Tldr: AI costs too high, therefore AI is the same as airplanes. Therefore AI = bad investment because old man says airlines = bad investment.
Also Trump limits expensive models which means it's an even worse investment
Truly regarded but at least it's not AI slop. Kudos for that.
Calls it is.
idk I think this is good analysis and maybe explains why Buffett is hoarding cash and making a gamble that the S&P is overvalued at the same time he goes on tv and tells America thats there a lot of gambling going on rn.
No positions? No post.
This isnt talkaboutbets.
Village idiot
Cybersecurity. That's all really.
I liked the use of driverless machines in farming when they can work 24/7 pretty much
Excellent overview!
AI goes down the drain? Good. That crap is gonna destroy us and our banana stock market.
So I should short Del Monte and Dole?
https://preview.redd.it/2lsg2t8yl0ah1.jpeg?width=480&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0e1542be9a93f3d02576ab260472ac901d60e99c
"guys i know AI still hasn't crashed since 2022, but i promise AI is gonna crash tomorrow due to facts that are absolutely new and not in the price already"
This guy is not only regarded, he full on.....
You know what lets let him cook. He belongs here
Physical AI? Sounds like calls on encyclopedia britanica.