r/valueinvesting
Salesforce is underrated
Beginner shares portfolio heavily weighted in CRM for its stickiness and reasonable P/E, alongside MSFT, FCX, AMZN, and REMEDY.
- Portfolio is well-positioned with undervalued tech and long-term commodity plays.
- Diversified exposure to AI efficiency and cloud resilience.
- Strong conviction in CRM's enterprise stickiness and reasonable valuation.
- Exposure to potential AI bubble crash risks.
- Some AI products like Agentforce are not fully mature yet.
- Gaming stocks like REMEDY face post-release sell-off risks.
I just started investing with pennies. Read my investment thesis below and rate my starting portfolio:
CRM 40,8%
I have used Salesforce for years on a daily basis and given how widely it is used among the world’s biggest firms there is a lot of stickiness and I believe it is significantly undervalued due to AI hype. Although Agentforce is not ”there yet”, P/E is on a reasonable level, especially compared to previous years, and there should be room to grow.
MSFT 23,7%
Azure, M365, hardware.. should be enough resiliency against AI bubble crash
FCX 15,8%
One of the world’s leading copper miners. I believe demand is going to continue rising in the future and this is one of my longer-term holds.
AMZN 14,5%
Not only AWS but major AI efficiency benefits in the more traditional retail side.
REMEDY 5,2%
Small-cap pearl. Game studio behind Control, and co-developer of Max Payne series, Alan Wake 2. Control Resonant is going to be released soon and it has enjoyed some good early reviews and anticipation. Last time stock price increased significantly after game was released before dropping again.
Most of the largest SAAS players that the market has deemed "AI losers" are trading at really attractive prices right now.
A good chunk of software names trade on a binary outcome right now. If you believe AI will meaningfully disrupt the SAAS model, then margins are unsustainable and their stocks are expensive today. If you believe we will still need enterprise SAAS in the coming years and things will remain more or less "business as usual," it's tought to find these unit economics/growth rates at a mid teens multiple.
Given the high stock based compansation salesforce is traded at a forward PE of 20 if we subtract SBC from the net income. Given the estimated 7-10% revenue growth and 10-15% EPS growth going forward I would call it fair value today. It was clearly overvalued when it traded close to 300$.
Fair point
Hey! Random question but what do you think of Google at current levels
Seems like a decent set of companies. I am bullish on CRM. Hard to bet against Microsoft or Amazon. I'll need to look into FCX and REMEDY. Big fan of the game Control.
Regarding Salesforce - the stock price seems to be going down for some time.
One of the SaaSpocalypse victims
You clearly know Salesforce because you actually use it. What would have to happen for you to change your mind? That’s usually the first thing I look for in an investment thesis.
Imagine if you held the NASDAQ or just had a little memory/semi exposure instead you just miss out on a generational bull run
Isn't it a bit too late considering risk/reward ratio to start investing to Micron and others at this point? I believe we are near the top already
This portfolio will have you standing by the freeway with a a sign that says “subscribed to valueinvesting plays, need food”
Haha we'll see!