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r/investingr/investing· u/TripleDouble_45· 1d ago 0

When to short SpaceX? Wait a while but it will probably plummet

Investor summaryBearish

Author predicts SpaceX will plummet by 2028-2030 due to overvaluation, unprofitable AI ventures, and Musk's missed predictions.

Bear points
  • SpaceX is severely overvalued and tied to an unprofitable AI strategy (Grok).
  • Elon Musk has a history of missing lofty predictions without facing valuation penalties.
  • SpaceX will likely fail to meet 2030 profit projections or pay promised dividends, triggering a sell-off.
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Post body

My guess very far away around 2028. Goldman projects 322 billion in AI revenue by 2030, blah blah it’s not going to happen. Grok is a pile of shit that says Elon can drink piss better than any human in history (it actually said that).

Why am I posting? SpaceX is overvalued, everyone knows that, everyone who bought it l knows that. Some think it will be undervalued, I don’t.

Elon has a history of making lofty predictions then moving the goalposts but this never translates to a reduction in his wealth or more importantly the valuations of his companies. He says autonomous vehicles by 2020, and when 2020 comes around he says Tesla will make robots that replace every factory worker by 2040.

Now why would SpaceX be different from Tesla which retains an even more ludicrous valuation? Well, it’s too big. Some would say too big to fail, I’d say too big.When SpaceX’s or Groks AI lags behind others in the industry, that poses a huge problem. Mainly because 90% of its future total addressable market is tied to AI and by proxy Grok. And grok isn’t making any money nor does it look like it will.

All the news is at the moment is that SpaceX popped on IPO and Elon is a trillionaire. SpaceX popped and Elon isn’t really worth a trillion. SpaceX will plummet either in this AI bubble pop which everyone’s predicting to happen imminently (of course it never does happen) or by 2030 when investors expect projections to be met and more importantly the projected profits to be recirculated through buybacks or dividends. I would guess that SpaceX will not be paying dividends in 2030, but its prospectus sure as shit makes it out like it should be

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