(Weekend Humour) If I were a betting man, I would bet that an agreement with Iran is coming sooner than later. <eom>

Investor summaryNeutral

Author humorously predicts an imminent Iran deal, speculating the UAE is paying off IRGC generals to secure the agreement.

Bull points

A diplomatic agreement with Iran could ease geopolitical tensions and stabilize global markets.
Paying off IRGC generals might remove the primary obstacle to a peace deal.

Bear points

The thesis relies on unconfirmed rumors about UAE releasing frozen funds.
The IRGC's self-interest could still cause the negotiations to collapse unexpectedly.

降息与宏观

Post body

(Note the Flair: Humor)

If I were a betting man, I would bet that an agreement is coming sooner than later.

Previously, I wrote elsewhere (and deleted as it was too pessimistic) that as long as the IRGC don’t show up on the negotiations, there would not be any peace agreements

The IRGC owns the major stakes of the economy in iran, from telco to banking to heavy industries (automotive and shipbuilding).

By right they are the vanguard for the 1979 Revolution against her enemies, by left they are just very corrupt generals running a Narco states and protecting their self-interest: stuffing their bank accounts.

When you view the negotiations in this context you will understand why when things were about to reached, it fell apart. About 2 weeks, an exasperated Iranian President or FM lamented that the army was not willing to follow the civilian govt.

Well over this weekend, two things happened, one report that uae is releasing billions in Iranian bank accounts for Iran. It is now denied.

The second news is an article on the IRGC who has been hardball.

———

So I think the uae is releasing the Iranian billions to the Iranian generals and not to the state. And yes, I really think an agreement is coming soon.