r/investing
Roast/review my portfolio. AI, Semis, Infra + ETFs. 40M, Europe. Rotate into Nasdaq?
EU investor with 40M portfolio heavy in AI/semis plans to consolidate and rotate 80% into Nasdaq/S&P ETFs for a 5-10 year horizon.
- Long-term structural growth in AI and semiconductor infrastructure.
- Shift to broad index ETFs ensures reliable market-matching returns over a 5-10 year horizon.
- Active stock picking is unlikely to outperform broad Nasdaq/S&P indices long-term.
- Heavy concentration in tech and semis exposes the portfolio to sector-specific drawdowns.
Portfolio allocations as of June:
Amazon 11.9%
Broadcom 7.6%
ServiceNow 1.2%
Marvell 0.6%
Gold (IGLD.DE) € 5.1%
Google 9.2%
Japan (IJPA) € 7.1%
Korea (FLXK) € 7.0%
Microsoft 7.7%
NVIDIA 7.7%
S&P500 (SXR8) € 23.7%
Silver (XAD2) € 2.0%
TSM 7.5%
Micron 1.6%
I'm now taking a longer view, like 5-10 years.
For that, I'm looking at rotating 80% into Nasdaq, S&P, or even a total market ETF (Nasdaq is my current favorite).
I do consider SOXX/SMH as well (but limited to 20%).
I wonder about consolidating into fewer positions.
My initial goal was to outperform the Nasdaq/S&P, but now that I look at a longer time horizon, that seems less likely.
What's your take?
Long dated bonds
They got some good value at the moment, and provide good diversification.
Huge AI and adjacent risk for 50%+ of your portfolio… if that play runs into issues, your toast. silver and gold, pick 1… dump silver.
He’s trying predict winners. It’s a losing strategy long term. Buy VTI and enjoy your life.
Reduce the number of tickers down -
Ex buy qqq instead of all these large cap tech
Overlap simulator
They adjusted the requirements for SpaceX with its IPO so Elon could have the the net worth of a trillionaire.
Understandably has a lot of people questioning the validity of Nasdaq now.
When is that AI crash coming?
Soon™
The rule changes allows major IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic to be listed in their index much, much quicker. In 3 weeks. IPOs historically underperform. The people who want to sell their shares aren't doing it from the kindness of their heart. They want to sell at the highest price possible. These companies are unprofitable and will be for the foreseeable future. It's probably likely that the Nasdaq will underperform the snp500 for the next year atleast.
Yeah, this is the most obvious and risk-managed take. My question would be why not Nasdaq given it outperformed VT/S&P for long stretches (10y+)?
It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover from the dot com bubble. For most of us, that’s 15 years of valuable compounding growth that you lose when the AI bubble pops.
1997 and 2011 were also 10+ years
i too moved part of my nasdaq funds but then again its dumb to move, the rules while worrisome will have a limited impact so im torn
Looks like you're seeking alpha
Aside from the gold and silver, most of this won't provide enough alpha to make it worth the risk vs going all SP500/VT
SP500/VT will largely move together in the short term with dollar weakening vs other currencies, but long term ex-US exposure provides asset diversity that somewhat hedges a weakening dollar
Consider keeping your retirement focused on diversifying asset exposure generally -- primarily stocks and home equity, with some cash, gold, cash alternatives
When you go for alpha, keep it limited to 2-3% of your portfolio and (ideally) never sell it... e.g. bought $2000 of Apple in 1999 based on hunch that personal computing would go from niche hobby to global standard
I am. I mean, I was seeking alpha, but it looks less prominent with work, kids, and time constraints overall.
From what I see Nasdaq outperforms Total and S\&P; therefore, I look at it as the main candidate, but without the research needed for stock picks. That said, if AI drops, Nasdaq drops the hardest. On the other hand waiting for a crash hasn't been the best advisor.