r/stockmarket
If SpaceX were valued like Boeing, most SpaceX shareholders would be crying right now.
The post discusses SpaceX's premium over traditional metrics, arguing investors price in future potential like early AMZN, TSLA, and NVDA.
- Investors are pricing in massive future potential like Starlink and space economy rather than just current assets.
- Traditional value investing frameworks would have caused investors to miss out on hypergrowth giants like AMZN, TSLA, and NVDA.
- Based on tangible assets and current revenue, traditional valuation implies a share price of merely $0.13 to $2.46.
- Pricing in too much of the future could eventually cross the line into pure speculation.
Based on tangible assets, current revenue, debt levels, and traditional aerospace valuation metrics, SpaceX's implied share price would be somewhere between $0.13 and $2.46 per share.
Yet private market investors continue valuing it at hundreds of billions.
Why?
Because nobody is buying SpaceX for what it is today. They're buying what it might become:
• Global internet provider through Starlink
• Dominant launch monopoly
• Lunar and Mars infrastructure
• Defense and intelligence contracts
• Potentially the first true space economy platform
Traditional value investing says:
"Show me the assets and cash flows."
SpaceX investors say:
"Show me the future."
The uncomfortable truth is that if you applied Benjamin Graham's framework to Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, or SpaceX during their hypergrowth years, you probably would have missed all of them.
The real question isn't whether SpaceX is overvalued today.
The real question is:
How much of the future should investors be allowed to price in before it becomes pure speculation?
Is that why people invest in Tesla and SpaceX? They want Elon to be richer?
And if grandma had wheels, she’d be a trolley.
Dude wants to populate Mars before the end of his life, I wish him great success and a long happy life, as long as he promises to leave with them. And maybe me if it seems interesting at the time.
True there are fools born everyday.
Just wait they will cry soon :)
Meta don’t build shit other than addiction it’s doomed don’t compare to SpaceX
Lol
Space data centres seem like an awful proposition... how are they going to deal with the heat generated in a vacuum, in a cost effective manner? Also, maintenance costs will be substantially higher, since all the installation/maintenance staff will need to be in space as well.
Nah. No one thinks SpaceX is worth its list price. People realised asset price and intrinsic worth are totally decoupled.
It’s like gold, it’s not priced based on its value in electronics, industry, etc present OR future.
It’s priced based potential upside based on his ability to manipulate the price of Tesla which is equally nonsensical.
If they hold for a year they will be crying
I despise Muskrat. Will never buy anything that he is associated with.
it's all speculation.
peeps like elon pump out enough dream juice to get enough money to then make the speculation a reality; it does not make it any less of a speculation from the get-go.
The master plan was written in 2006 it talks about building cars.
Part two was written a decade ago.
It was about solar panels and making autonomous robot taxis that make you money while you're at work or sleeping.
Master Plan Part Three was written three years ago and is a nation-wide policy proposal about replacing all fossil fuels and making massive changes through a restructuring program to the
North American power transmission grid, currently owned by a few thousand different US
electric utility companies and coordinated by massive regional government and quasi-governmental counsels.
Master Plan Part Four was written last year and talks about replacing specialized automated industrial machinery with autonomous humanoid robots.
The first business plan is good for a car company. The rest is scifi bullshit written by an idiot without the power to implement what he is yammering about, nor the understanding about why what he's writing is a child-dumb level of complexity.
Comparing a plane company vs a space+ai company.. lol have you tried really analyzing stuff before writing this post? You’re a bit off.
The common clay of the new investors