r/stocks
What $10k invested in 8 major indices in 2011 would be worth today
The author compares 13-year returns of 8 major indices, highlighting QQQ's massive outperformance driven by tech, while bonds lagged.
- Long-term index investing has generated massive wealth, with QQQ returning over 1400% since 2011.
- Recent surges in previously lagging assets like small caps indicate broadening market participation.
- Bonds have severely underperformed, barely beating inflation over 13 years and suffering historic drawdowns in 2022.
- Broad market diversification (like VTI vs S&P 500) barely moved the needle due to the drag of mid and small caps.
Got curious how much the specific flavor of index funds actually matters over a medium time horizon, so I dumped a hypothetical $10k into eight of them and tracked it from 2011 to now. Total return, dividends reinvested, everything starting at the same $10k so it’s an even fight. I started in 2011 because that’s when VXUS (total international) launched and I didn’t want to leave it out.
Where the $10k ended up, as of last week:
• NASDAQ 100 (QQQ): \~$153k
• S&P 500: \~$78k
• VTI (total US market): \~$74k
• Dow: \~$62k
• S&P MidCap 400: \~$51k
• Russell 2000 (small cap): \~$43k
• VXUS (international): \~$27k
• US Aggregate bonds: \~$14k
A few things that stuck out:
QQQ ate everyone’s lunch. It nearly doubled the S&P’s result. That’s the whole AI/megacap-tech decade showing up in a single line. Plain and simple.
VTI and the S&P have been the same fund for all practical purposes. They sit right on top of each other the whole way. VTI throws mid and small caps into the mix but those lagged, so it actually landed a hair behind the plain S&P. The “VTI is more diversified” argument barely moved the needle this stretch. If you’ve owned one you really didn’t need the other.
Small caps were largely a letdown, but are starting to surge (more on this later).
Bonds are rough. $10k became about $14k over fifteen years, which is almost the exact same growth as inflation in that time. That said, bonds are made so you don’t have to white-knuckle a 30% drawdown in the market, which is a real thing worth paying for depending on your risk tolerance. Still, seeing it drawn to scale kind of stings. Plus bonds weren’t even all that peaceful the whole way. 2022 was the worst year in the history of the agg index (down around 13%) when the Fed went scorched-earth on rates.
Anyway, the part that actually got me to post is that 2026 is behaving somewhat differently so far. A bunch of the stuff that got left for dead is out front: small caps +14.7% YTD, mid caps around +11.5%, international +12.2%, all beating the S&P at roughly +8.8%. QQQs still at the top (+17.5%) but it’s been a rollercoaster, up around 21% in early June before coughing a chunk back. Bonds are slightly red.
The thing I think I find most interesting is the small and mid cap movement. International looks great, but like QQQ, is largely being driven by the AI trade. Small and mid cap, on the other hand, are made up of 21% industrials, 16% financials, and 14% healthcare, with tech only making up around 12%. So the whole small-and-mid chunk of the market is basically banks and industrials and boring domestic stuff, nowhere near the S&P’s \~33% tech. Obviously you have to assume AI is positively influencing these companies, but it’s hard to know how at this point in time.
Will be interesting to see where things go from here. Happy trading.
Curious why SPY and not VOO?
Sure, VOO has a lower expense ratio, go for that. I was generically discussing funds that track the two indexes.
SPX is 7.8x since 2011? Are you sure your numbers are right. Even with reinvested dividends, seems too high
Blame it on financially illiterate parents
At least mine were. Same situation, with a wad of cash just sitting in a savings account for years
We all know about portfolio backrest websites
If you include the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF, you'll find even more astonishing figures.
What were the recent Nasdaq changes? Were they pan market or only for SpaceX?
Yeah I am very curious to see how long QQQ can keep up its recent run. Plus, Small caps outpacing SPY by almost 7% this year so far is nothing to be scoffed at.
GOOG in 2011 was already well diversified by itself and was producing to of the line research while T was sitting on its bum
That’s fine keep dodging my point.
Your point was?
nice exercise, and the boring takeaway is usually that over 15 years the specific flavor mattered less than just being in the market the whole time. someone will always point out a start date that flatters one index, but if your horizon is decades the gap between a total-market fund and an sp500 fund is noise next to the gap between investing and not. fun to see it laid out though.
Thanks! And yeah, the more I study the markets the more DCAing every month into VOO and VTI seems like the best and least stressful strategy.
The QQQ vs S&P gap is essentially one decade of megacap tech dominance visualized, the interesting question is whether the next 15 years have the same driver or if small/mid/international rotation is actually the early signal of something different
Yes, this is the central question this raised for me, especially looking at the data from the first half of this year. Could be fools gold, but so far small and medium caps are performing incredibly well, especially relatively to their 15yr performance up to this point.