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Terms of the deal - not buying that it will stick
Investor summaryNeutral
The author doubts the reported US-Iran deal terms will hold, citing unrealistic demands and Trump's past stance.
Bear points
- Iran's demands are too extreme for Trump to accept.
- Historical tensions and Trump's previous policies make a lasting deal highly unlikely.
降息与宏观
Post body
Unless Trump abandons pretty much everything he’s every said about Iran there is no way this is happening…
Yeah, I know…
Terms being claimed by Iran
- The permanent and immediate halt of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
- A U.S. commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
- The complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.
- A U.S. commitment to withdraw its forces from the areas surrounding Iran.
- The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian “arrangements”.
- The suspension of oil sanctions, petrochemical products and derivatives, and Iran’s full access to the financial proceeds from them.
- The requirement for the US & its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion.
- Sixty days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of primary and secondary U.S. sanctions, as well as UN Security Council resolutions and resolutions of the IAEA Board of Governors.
- Iran’s reiteration of its commitment under the NPT not to produce nuclear weapons.
- During the negotiation period, the U.S. has committed not to add to its forces in the region and not to impose any new sanctions.
- The release of $24 billion of Iran’s frozen funds during the 60-day period of final negotiations. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before the negotiations begin.
- The formation of a supervisory mechanism to implement the agreement.
- The final agreement will be approved through a UN Security Council resolution.
- Final negotiations will not begin before half of Iran’s frozen funds are released, Iran’s oil sanctions are suspended, and the naval blockade is lifted. The final agreement will be limited only to the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, sanctions relief, and the program for rebuilding Iran’s economy. Discussions about Iran’s missile program and support for Resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda."
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